Outside powers should stop considering military intervention and instead help broker a peaceful transition in Venezuela, lest chaos ensue. Why did it happen? The ongoing economic crisis has driven many impoverished Venezuelans into working in the illegal mining sector. Armed state and non-state actors, Colombian guerrillas foremost among them, have also expanded in this resource-rich region.
Fast-declining oil production has turned gold mining into a vital source of revenue. Why does it matter? The presence of organised crime and guerrilla groups harms communities, diverts scarce resources and prompts sky-high murder rates. Their expansion and cross-border operations, especially into Colombia, risk destabilising the entire region at a time of extreme uncertainty in Venezuela. What should be done?
Providing humanitarian care for affected populations, preserving communications between neighbouring armed forces, and restarting peace talks with rebels in Colombia are essential next steps.
Sanctions targeting gold exports are counterproductive and should be abandoned in favour of stronger due diligence on mineral trading. At the same time, violent criminal groups have asserted control over mining communities, often in league with authorities. More recently, Colombian guerrillas and former rebels have crossed the Orinoco River to seize their share of the largely illegal mining industry. The riches and rebel proliferation in the south complicate prospects for a peaceful transition in Caracas by reinforcing military resistance to political change and stoking risks of cross-border violence and low-intensity warfare.
Humanitarian attention for populations in the south, regular communication between neighbouring armed forces, renewed efforts to make peace with the guerrillas and cleaning up the gold trade will prove vital to easing tensions and protecting vulnerable Venezuelans.
